Monday, April 6, 2009

India is the world’s largest democracy, and general elections begin later this month. The voting is staggered, and will not finish till mid-May, but the results will be known almost immediately after. India has successfully adopted electronic voting machines, which appear to be quite tamper-proof. The spread out voting allows government personnel to be deployed sequentially to oversee polling places in different states. In general, the election process is conducted efficiently and fairly. Of course, campaign finance involves large sums of money, some of it not transparent, and voters are bribed and sometimes coerced. But ultimately, democracy works in India: the results are trusted and accepted.Predictions of four different opinion polls.

1) UPA - 257

2) NDA - 184

3) LEFT FRONT - 34

4) BSP - 21

5) SP - 30

6) OTHERS - 47

2) THE TIMES OF INDIA NEWSPAPER (March 6)

UPA - 201

NDA - 195

LEFT FRONT - 40

BSP - 34

SP - 23 OTHERS - 50

3) DNA NEWSPAPER (Daily News and Analysis) ( March 9)

UPA - 201

NDA - 170

LEFT FRONT - - 22

BSP - 32

SP - 31

OTHERS - 87

4) THE CNN-IBN NEWS CHANNEL AND CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF DEVELOPING SOCIETIES (Feb 21)

UPA - 215-235

NDA - 165- 185

LEFT FRONT - 35- 45

BSP - N/A

SP - N/A

OTHERS - 90-110

NOTES:

# The counting of votes is on May 16.

# BSP - Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), a party of mainly lower caste voters led by Mayawati, the chief minister of the potentially swing state of Uttar Pradesh.

* LEFT FRONT - Communist or leftist parties that supported the government until last year but now are campaigning as an alternative to Congress and the BJP.

* SP - Samajwadi Party, an Uttar Pradesh-based party supporting the Congress-led government from outside but are yet to announce a poll tie up.

* The Star News Nielsen Poll includes the SP in the UPA.

* OTHERS - These are smaller parties which could hold the key to formation of the next government in India (Compiled by Bappa Majumdar; Editing by David Fox)

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